Sunday, March 8, 2009




-Where did the market open in relation to the previous day's value and then what happened?
ES opened in last session's value area, then trades up 09:30-10:00, recorded a single print extreme at 699, then couldn't go any further, seller step in and traded down for 10:00-10:30. Market balanced for a brief moment at 10:30 , then in 10:30-11:00 period, the seller tips the short-lived balance and extends the range down and brought in more selling. The range extension stops in 11:00 at 675 but there is no competition from the buyer to form an extreme - single print. It seems market wants to head down too much in too little time and then rotates back up between 11:00 and 12:00 and couldn't trade higher at previous session lows at 685. Market extends ranges to new low in period 1400-1530. In last half hour the buyer made directional move and closed at opening value area.

-What is the net activity - extremes, range extension, value area? Initiating or responsive?

Initiating selling above the previous day's value on the high extreme, responsive buying below the previous day's value on the low extreme, failed downward range extension (the entire range extension was recovered in the last half hour), responsive buying below the previous day's value in today's value area.

-What is your conclusion ?

The market seems to have tried to move from imbalance to balance. But I think still in imbalanced down mode, we have not moved low enough this time to bring in an opposite response that is strong enough to stop the move and reverse market direction.

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