Friday, February 27, 2009

bad trade analysis




Observations:


1) enlongated bar at market top or bottom

Volume bar is likely to get elongated before reversal, I interprete this as sellers dry up in the case of touching bottom, price can be either up or down but the transaction hit the waiting bid order - buyers' limit buying order, then the Volume bar records this transaction as down tick, and then Volume bar shows in red color. This is a sign the buyers stepping in, I believe.

in the case when market at the top, the buyers slow down, the sellers put in LIMIT SELL ORDER, the transaction hit the waiting sell order, recorded as UP TICK, then the VOLUME bar shows GreeN, even though there are less new buyers step up. This could be a sign that the market topping out and sellers getting control .

2) UP VOLUME and DOWN VOLUME each follows its own trend line, breaking its trend line indicate a potential shift to the weight or confidence or energy of bears group or bulls group, it not necessarily mean change will take place right away, a short counter trend could follow. But importantly, take breaking trendline as a warning sign.

3) If at the time of VOLUME touches trendline boundaries, the price happens to be market resistance or support level, minimize risk - tight up stop loss limit !!! or don't trade or simply cover the trade, take profit on the table, or minimize loss and exit, the reason is I guess the collective large players trade with bigger trend know the stop loss the people put, or could be longer time frame players join in and care less.

4) range bound day, TICK extremes at +-1000 is a reversal play, oscalator

5) range day, price tends to explode the immediate previous upper and bottom limits once bounced by one side.

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